Here is some research into how the MarkStrat Share Price Index (SPI) is calculated since many schools use this to determine performance and grades. My analysis was to look at the MarkStrat Share Price Index of a number of teams, over a number of periods, through a number of simulations. I performed some simple statistic analysis and got the answer.
The Excel export was used, and inside the Industry Dashboard sheet, and the variables Period, Revenues, Net contribution, Market share – Value, Retail sales, Market share – Unit and Volume sold. It turns out a lot of these are either highly correlated with each other or not related significantly.
The final variables to calculate the MarkStrat Share Price Index were Period, Revenues and Market share Value, and I’ll explain these variable in detail below.
Period – if you have more periods, you have more oportunity to increase your MarkStrat Share Price Index. Each additional period adds 27 to your SPI, the difference between 8 and 10 rounds only adds 53 to your SPI.
Revenues – your total revenue is the main determinant of your SPI, the larger the revenues the high the MarkStrat Share Price Index. For every additional $100k you add to your total revenue, your SPI increases by 883.
Market Share by Value – probably the least expected variable, but the control of the complete MarkStrat segments in each market makes a difference to your SPI. This agrees with my view that to win you need to be in Vodite Followers segment to gain that significant market share. If you gain 100%, 75% or 50% of the market by volume, this would add 3344, 2508, 1672 respectively to your SPI.
The MarkStrat Share Price Index model
SPI = 26.74*Period + 0.0088*Revenues + 3344.14*MarketshareValue
What I’ve noticed that the error is skewed too high for low SPI predictions and too low for high SPI predictions, so that’s something to further investigate. For the model there was an R-squared of 95.8%, which means around 5% explained by some other variables.
If I remove the earlier periods, there is less influence by the periods and more on the Revenues, Market Share also isn’t as important.
It should be noted that MarkStrat Share Price Index cannot be negative. Lowest I have seen is 172 and highest is 9,604.
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